[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 September 19 issued 2335 UT on 27 Sep 2019

Sat Sep 28 09:35:52 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 27 September 
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions 
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar 
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 28-30 September. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. During UT day 27 September, the solar wind speed was 
near its nominal levels up to 0930UT, then it started increasing 
and reached 722 km/s at 2030UT, indicating the arrival of high-speed 
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole. 
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5 nT and 15 nT. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied from +4 nT to -10 nT, and sustained 
southward between 1100 UT and 1800 UT. During the next three 
UT days, 28-30 September, the solar wind speed is expected to 
remain at high levels as the coronal hole effects persist.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   01222433
      Cocos Island        11   01222443
      Darwin               9   12222333
      Townsville           9   12222333
      Learmonth           14   01223444
      Alice Springs        9   11222333
      Gingin              14   01223444
      Launceston          12   02222434
      Hobart               8   01222333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    15   00124543
      Casey               14   23313334
      Mawson              38   31314476

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   2000 1100     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep    45    Active to Minor Storm with possible isolated 
                Major Storm periods.
29 Sep    25    Quiet to Minor Storm
30 Sep    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: On UT day 27 September, the geomagnetic activity reached 
Active levels in the Australian region and Major storm levels 
in Antarctica. The disturbed conditions were due to coronal hole 
effects. Active and Minor storm levels are expected for 28-29 
September. Isolated Major storm periods are possible for 28 September. 
Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to mostly Quiet 
to Active levels on 30 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
29 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
30 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for 
28-30 September due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Sep    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
29 Sep   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
30 Sep   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
27 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements 
were also observed, mostly in the Southern Australian region. 
Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. 
Degraded HF propagation conditions are likely for 28-30 September 
as a consequence of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    40400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.