[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 25 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 26 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 25 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 26-28 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 25 September, the solar wind speed was gradually
decreasing from 500 km/s to 380-390 km/s, the total IMF (Bt)
varied between 3 and 5 nT and Bz ranged between -3 and +5 nT.
During the next UT day, 26 September, the solar wind speed is
expected to stay near its nominal values. Then, on 27 September
it is expected to start increasing and can reach and exceed 600
km/s due to arrival of high speed solar wind stream associated
with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11220001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 21120001
Townsville 4 21221111
Learmonth 3 20221101
Alice Springs 2 11120001
Gingin 2 11220001
Canberra 2 01120001
Launceston 5 12231101
Hobart 4 12230001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 11130000
Casey 8 23421102
Mawson 16 14531024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2321 3422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 29 Unsettled to Minor Storm
28 Sep 40 Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 24 September
and is current for 27 Sep only. Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity were recorded in the Australian region on UT day 25
September. Mostly quiet conditions with one isolated active to
minor storm period were observed in the Antarctic region on this
day. During UT day 26 September global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. On UT day
27 September geomagnetic activity is expected to rise to active
and minor storm levels due to coronal hole effects. Mostly active
and minor storm levels are expected for 28 September. Isolated
major storm periods are possible for both 27 and 28 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
28 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
during UT day 25 September. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were mostly near predicted monthly values; some periods of minor
to moderate MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also
observed in some low- and high-latitude regions. For the next
UT day, 26 September, mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected. On 27-28 September, degraded HF propagation conditions
are likely due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
25 September. Some periods of minor MUF enhancements and depressions
were also observed. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. For the next three UT days, 26-28 September,
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values;
moderately enhanced MUFs are likely for 27 September. Degraded
HF propagation conditions are likely for 27-28 September as a
consequences of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 58800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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