[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 24 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 25 09:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 24 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 25-27 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 24 September, the solar wind speed stayed
in the range 300-315 km/s up to 1203 UT, the total IMF (Bt) varied
between 2 and 5 nT and Bz ranged between -6 and +2 nT. Then a
shock wave was observed in the solar wind at 1203 UT. After that
the solar wind speed has increased and reached 500 km/s, while
Bt reached 17 nT. During the next two UT days, 25-26 September,
the solar wind speed is expected to return to its nominal values.
Then, on 27 September it is expected to start increasing and
can reach and exceed 600 km/s due to arrival of high speed solar
wind stream associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22213421
Cocos Island 6 11103410
Darwin 9 22113412
Townsville 10 22213422
Learmonth 12 22213521
Alice Springs 8 12213411
Gingin 7 22113321
Canberra 7 12213321
Launceston 10 23313322
Hobart 7 12213321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 13214410
Casey 7 22222222
Mawson 15 34423322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 29 Unsettled to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day
24 September. In the SWS magnetometer data for 24 Sep, a weak
(8 nT) impulse was observed at 1311 UT. During UT days 25-26
September global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels. On UT day 27 September geomagnetic
activity is expected to rise to active and minor storm levels
due to coronal hole effects, with isolated major storm periods
being possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
during UT day 24 September. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were mostly near predicted monthly values; some periods of minor
to moderate MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also
observed in some low- and high-latitude regions. For the next
two UT days, 25-26 September, mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected. On the third UT day, 27 September, degraded HF
propagation conditions are likely due to predicted increase in
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
24 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
were also observed, mostly in Southern Australian region during
local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. For the next three UT days, 25-27 September,
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
Degraded HF propagation conditions and moderately enhanced MUFs
are likely on 27 September as a consequences of the predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 29600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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