[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 23 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 24 09:31:43 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 23 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 24-26 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 23 September, the solar wind speed stayed
between 300 km/s and 330 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between
2 and 5 nT and Bz ranged between -4 and +5 nT. On UT day 24 September
the solar wind speed is expected to increase to moderately enhanced
levels due arrival of the high speed solar wind stream associated
with a trans-equatorial coronal hole which was facing the Earth
on 20-21 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 00110101
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 3 11211102
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 2 11110200
Alice Springs 1 10000101
Gingin 0 00000100
Canberra 0 00000101
Launceston 2 00010212
Hobart 1 00010101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 5 22211212
Mawson 6 21101331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 7 Quiet
26 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 23 September. Quiet conditions
with one isolated unsettled period were observed in the Antarctic
region on this day. On 24 September geomagnetic activity may
rise to unsettled levels due to coronal hole effects. During
UT day 25 September, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at quiet levels. At the end of the UT day 26 September
geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels and possibly
active levels due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
during UT day 23 September. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were mostly near predicted monthly values; some periods of minor
to moderate MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also
observed in some low- and high-latitude regions. For the next
three UT days, 24-26 September, mostly normal HF propagation
conditions are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
23 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
as well as depressions were also observed. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next three
UT days, 24-26 September, MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 36000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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