[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 September 19 issued 2333 UT on 22 Sep 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 23 09:33:07 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 22 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 23-25 September.
During UT day 22 September, the solar wind speed stayed between
330 km/s and 360 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 3.5
nT and 5 nT, Bz between -1 and +5 nT and the particle density
between 2.5 and 3.5 ppcc. Solar wind stream is expected stay
at nominal levels during the first half of UT day 23 September
and then show some strengthening through the late hours of UT
day 23 September and then stay stronger through UT days 24 and
25 September due to the effect of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Cocos Island 1 01100100
Townsville 1 11000111
Learmonth 1 01000111
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 0 00000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12100001
Mawson 5 32000123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2233 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 8 Mostly quiet, some unsettled and active periods
possible
24 Sep 12 Unsettled to Active
25 Sep 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 22 September. Mostly quiet and
isolated unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region on this day. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
initially stay at quiet levels on UT 23 September and then rise
to unsettled and possibly active levels during the late hours
of the day. Mostly unsettled to active global geomagnetic conditions
may be expected through UT days 24 and 25 September due to the
effect of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 22 September. Some periods of minor
to moderate MUF enhancements as well as MUF depressions were
also observed in some low- and mid-latitude regions. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the
next three UT days, 23-25 September, MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed by up to around
30% during the next three UT days, 23 to 25 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
22 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
as well as MUF depressions were also observed. Sporadic-E and
Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next
three UT days, 23-25 September, MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values with the possibility of minor to moderate
MUF depressions on UT days 23 to 25 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 35100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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