[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 September 19 issued 2334 UT on 21 Sep 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 22 09:34:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 21 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 22-24 September.
During UT day 21 September, the solar wind speed showed a quick
rise from 300 km/s to 364 km/s between 03.56 and 06.21 UT and
then stayed between 340 km/s and 360 km/s during the rest of
the day. The total IMF (Bt) increased from 3 nT to 7 nT by 06.03
UT and then varied between 2 and 6 nT during the remaining day,
Bz turned south to -6.2 around 05.47 UT and the particle density
increased from 4 to 12 ppcc around 06.00 UT. These observations
seem to support the arrival of a slow and weak CME that was observed
on 16 September. Solar wind stream is expected to stay at nominal
levels on UT day 22 September and then show some strengthening
on UT days 23 and 24 September due to the effect of a coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11222201
Cocos Island 2 11111200
Townsville 5 11222211
Learmonth 5 22222201
Alice Springs 4 11222200
Gingin 5 21222201
Canberra 3 01222200
Launceston 6 12223201
Hobart 4 12222200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 02244100
Casey 8 23321212
Mawson 20 32332255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2010 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 5 Quiet
23 Sep 10 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
24 Sep 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 21 September. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic region with
isolated active and minor storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at quiet levels on UT day 22 September
and then rise to unsettled and active levels on 23 and 24 September
due to the effect of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 21 September. Some periods of minor
to moderate MUF enhancements as well as MUF depressions were
also observed in some low- and mid-latitude regions. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the
next three UT days, 22-24 September, MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values with the possibility of
minor to moderate MUF depressions on UT days 23 and 24 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep -2 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
21 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
as well as MUF depressions were also observed. Sporadic-E and
Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next
three UT days, 22-24 September, MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values with the possibility of minor to moderate
MUF depressions on UT days 23 and 24 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 32800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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