[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 02 Sep 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 3 09:31:28 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 2 September. 
There is one region AR2748 at N14E08 (22:55 UT) on the visible 
solar disk. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 
three UT days, 03 to 05 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 
2 September, the solar wind speed showed a slight gradual decrease 
from 710 km/s to 680 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) decreased from 
6 nT to 3 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
from +6 nT to -5 nT. The solar wind particle density varied between 
1 ppcc and 2.5 ppcc during most parts of this day. Through UT 
day 03 September, the solar wind speed is expected to show a 
gradual decrease as the coronal hole effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Mostly quiet 
to unsettled, isolated active periods

Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33322232
      Cocos Island         9   23212331
      Darwin              10   33322222
      Townsville          12   33322233
      Learmonth           12   33323232
      Alice Springs       12   33322332
      Gingin              16   43323342
      Canberra             9   33321122
      Launceston          18   34433333
      Hobart              15   33433332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    21   43444243
      Casey               18   44333333
      Mawson              67   75642376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             49   5565 6355     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible
04 Sep     6    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep     4    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 2 September in the Australian region, geomagnetic 
activity varied mostly between quiet and unsettled levels with 
isolated active periods. In the Antarctic region, the activity 
varied from unsettled to major storm levels. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to vary mostly from quiet to unsettled levels 
on UT days 3 and 4 September with isolated active periods on 
3 September. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay 
at quiet levels on UT day 5 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 2 September. MUFs are expected to 
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days (3 to 5 September).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Sep   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep    -8    Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep    -7    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 2 September in the Australian region. 
Sporadic E occurrences were observed over some Australian sites. 
MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values 
for the next three UT days (3 to 5 September) in the Australian 
region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 691 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   254000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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