[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 03 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 4 09:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 3 September.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
04 to 06 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 3 September, the
solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 650 km/s to 590
km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 1.4 nT and 5.8 nT and
the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+3.5/-3.5 nT. The solar wind particle density varied between
0.5 ppcc and 2.5 ppcc during most parts of this day. Through
UT day 04 September, the solar wind speed is expected to show
a gradual decrease as the coronal hole effects wane further.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Mostly quiet,
isolated unsettled periods
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 3 21121110
Darwin 4 21212111
Townsville 7 22223112
Learmonth 6 22222121
Alice Springs 5 22212111
Gingin 5 21222120
Canberra 3 21212000
Launceston 9 22423111
Hobart 6 22322011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 22433011
Casey 11 33332123
Mawson 21 34442344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 22 5542 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 6 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 4 Quiet
06 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 3 September in the Australian region, geomagnetic
activity stayed mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
In the Antarctic region, the activity varied from quiet to active
levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to vary mostly
from quiet to unsettled levels on UT day 4 September. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at quiet levels on UT
days 5 and 6 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 3 September with periods of mild
to significant enhancements in some low-latitude regions. MUFs
are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days (4 to 6 September).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep -8 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep -7 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 3 September in the Australian region
with periods of mild to significant enhancements in the northern
areas. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over some Australian
sites. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days (4 to 6 September) in the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 675 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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