[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 01 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 2 09:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 1 September.
A new region (AR2748) has appeared on the visible solar disk
and is currently located near N14E21. Very Low solar activity
is expected for the next three UT days, 02 to 04 September. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 1 September, the solar wind speed remained
at very high levels, ranging from 650 km/s to 800 km/s. This
was in response to high-speed solar wind streams associated with
a recurrent large equatorial coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt)
ranged between 5 nT and 8 nT. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) varied from +5 nT to -7 nT. The IMF Bz was predominantly
southward during the last 24 hours, which caused stronger coupling
between solar wind energy and near-earth space environment. On
UT 02 September, the solar wind speed is expected to remain at
high levels as the coronal hole effects persist. The solar wind
speed to expected to begin to decline from UT day 03 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 26 33555332
Cocos Island 15 33334332
Darwin 21 33454332
Townsville 26 33555332
Learmonth 26 33555332
Alice Springs 26 33555332
Gingin 30 33564433
Canberra 20 23554311
Launceston 36 33665343
Hobart 34 33665332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 84 34787553
Casey 25 43454343
Mawson 74 57655673
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 19 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 80 (Active)
Canberra NA
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 48
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 40 4545 6434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 20 Active
03 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 1 September, the geomagnetic activity activity
reached minor storm levels in the Australian region and major
storm levels in Antarctica. The Australian DST index reached
-89 nT near 01/0500 UT. The disturbed conditions were due to
coronal hole effects. On UT day 2 September, the global geomagnetic
activity is expected range between Unsettled to Active levels
as the high wind speed from the coronal hole persists. Isolated
Minor Storm levels are possible on 2 September, if IMF Bz remains
southward for significant period. From UT day 03 September, geomagnetic
activity is expected to decrease gradually to Quiet and Unsettled
levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
02 September due to increased geomagnetic activity associated
with the coronal hole
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep -20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep -20 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 1 September. Sporadic E occurrences
were observed over some Australian sites. Some degraded HF propagation
conditions are expected on the next 3 UT days (02-04 September)
due to the recent disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated
with coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 673 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 286000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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