[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 August 19 issued 2337 UT on 31 Aug 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 1 09:37:45 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 31 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 01 to 03 September. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
UT day 31 August, the solar wind speed was at very high levels,
ranging from 550 km/s to 750 km/s. This was in response to high-speed
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent equatorial coronal
hole. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5 nT and 11 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied from +7 nT to -9 nT, and was
strongly southward between 31/1000 UT and 31/1200 UT . During
the next two UT days, 01 September to 02 September, the solar
wind speed is expected to remain at high levels as the coronal
hole effects persist. The solar wind speed to expected to begin
to decline from UT day 03 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 22 33355323
Cocos Island 16 23244423
Darwin 19 33354323
Townsville 24 34355333
Learmonth 24 33355433
Alice Springs 22 33355323
Gingin 31 33356533
Canberra 22 33355323
Launceston 35 34466334
Hobart 22 33355323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 38 24466543
Casey 31 44345633
Mawson 108 66555688
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 42
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 1111 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 20 Active
02 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 30 August and
is current for 31 Aug to 1 Sep. On UT day 31 August, the geomagnetic
activity activity reached minor storm levels in the Australian
region and major storm levels in Antarctica. The Australian DST
index reached -61 nT near 31/1100 UT. The disturbed conditions
were due to coronal hole effects. On UT day 1 September, the
global geomagnetic activity is expected range between Unsettled
to Active levels as the high wind speed from the coronal hole
persists. Isolated Minor Storm levels are possible on 1 September.
There is some chance that aurora may be visible in the local
night of 1 September from Tasmania. From UT day 02 September,
geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease gradually to Quiet
and Unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
01 September due to increased geomagnetic activity associated
with the coronal hole
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep -15 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were slightly enhanced
to near predicted monthly values during UT day 31 August. Sporadic
E occurrences were observed some Australian sites. Some degraded
HF propagation conditions are expected on the next 3 UT days
(01-03 September) due to recent disturbed geomagnetic conditions
associated with coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 70600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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