[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 October 19 issued 2346 UT on 24 Oct 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 25 10:46:49 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct:  65/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Oct             26 Oct             27 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    65/0               65/0               65/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day 24 October. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The 
solar wind speed was at nominal levels between 00UT-10UT after 
which it began to gradually increase from 400km/s up to a maximum 
of 640km/s at the time of this report. The total IMF (Bt) was 
<5nT between 00UT-06UT after which it has ranged between 3nT 
and 13nT. The north south component of the IMF (Bz) went as southward 
as -11.6nT at 0906UT and has since fluctuated between +/-8nT 
with some short periods (<2hrs) of sustained southward Bz. Solar 
wind speed is expected to remain at these elevated levels for 
the next 24-48 hours under the influence of a high speed solar 
wind stream associated with a positive-polarity coronal hole. 
Very low solar activity is expected for 25Oct-27Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   12233332
      Cocos Island        10   02132432
      Darwin              10   12233332
      Townsville          13   12243333
      Learmonth           12   12233432
      Alice Springs       10   12233332
      Canberra            10   12133332
      Hobart              12   02133442    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    25   01065532
      Casey               13   23332333
      Mawson              32   12143665

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Oct    25    Active
26 Oct    20    Active
27 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 23 October 
and is current for 23-25 Oct. Geomagnetic activity for the Australian/NZ 
region was at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the last 24 hours 
with Antarctic regions experiencing Active to Minor Storm conditions 
due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a positive-polarity 
coronal hole located just north of the equator. Active conditions 
with possible Minor Storm periods are expected for 25Oct-26Oct 
followed by mostly Unsettled conditions for 27Oct.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
26 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies (MUFs) were slightly depressed 
for low latitudes and some disturbed ionospheric support for 
high latitudes observed for 24Oct. Depressed MUFs for low to 
mid latitudes and Fair ionospheric support expected for high 
latitudes 25Oct-26Oct due to recent geomagnetic activity returning 
to mostly normal HF conditions on 27 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Oct   -27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -5
Oct      -15
Nov      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Oct   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
26 Oct   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
27 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Notably depressed Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) 
observed over Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for 24Oct and some 
periods of disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. 
MUF depressions of 30% possible for 25Oct-26Oct over Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions along with poor ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions due to recent geomagnetic activity. Ionospheric 
recovery expected to commence 27Oct with MUFs at near predicted 
monthly values for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    22500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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