[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 25 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 26 10:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 25 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Through
UT day 25 October, the solar wind speed varied mostly between
610 km/s and 670 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 3 nT and 10
nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between -7 nT and
+5 nT. The solar wind particle density varied in the range 1
ppcc to 4 ppcc during this time. This strengthening in the solar
wind parameters is associated with a recurrent positive polarity
coronal hole. This strengthening in the solar wind stream is
expected to continue through UT day 26 October and then gradually
decline through UT days 27 and 28 October. Very low solar activity
is expected for UT days, 26 to 28 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active
with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 23433322
Cocos Island 10 22333321
Darwin 9 22333212
Townsville 12 23433222
Learmonth 13 23433322
Alice Springs 13 23433312
Canberra 17 23543322
Hobart 18 33543322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 38 34665521
Casey 18 44443222
Mawson 58 45653674
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 0113 3434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
27 Oct 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
28 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Through UT day 25 October, the geomagnetic activity
for the Australian/NZ region was at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated minor storm periods. In the Antarctic regions,
the geomagnetic activity varied mostly from quiet to minor storm
levels with isolated major storm periods. These rises in geomagnetic
activity levels are due to the high speed solar wind stream from
a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Due to the continued
effect of this coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity may
show enhancements to active levels on UT day 26 October and then
gradually decrease to unsettled and then quiet levels through
UT days 27 and 28 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs stayed mostly near predicted monthly values through
UT day 25 October with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions
as well as periods of minor to mild enhancements. Minor to mild
MUF depressions in the mid- to high-latitude regions may be expected
through UT days 26 and 27 October. Mostly normal MUFs may be
expected through UT day 28 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
27 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 25 October
and is current for 25-26 Oct. MUFs stayed mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Australian regions through UT day 25 October
with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions as well as
periods of minor to mild enhancements. Minor to mild MUF depressions
in the Australian regions may be expected through UT days 26
and 27 October. Mostly normal MUFs may be expected in this region
through UT day 28 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list