[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 25 Oct 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 26 10:31:35 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 25 October. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Through 
UT day 25 October, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 
610 km/s and 670 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 3 nT and 10 
nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between -7 nT and 
+5 nT. The solar wind particle density varied in the range 1 
ppcc to 4 ppcc during this time. This strengthening in the solar 
wind parameters is associated with a recurrent positive polarity 
coronal hole. This strengthening in the solar wind stream is 
expected to continue through UT day 26 October and then gradually 
decline through UT days 27 and 28 October. Very low solar activity 
is expected for UT days, 26 to 28 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active 
with isolated minor storm periods.

Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23433322
      Cocos Island        10   22333321
      Darwin               9   22333212
      Townsville          12   23433222
      Learmonth           13   23433322
      Alice Springs       13   23433312
      Canberra            17   23543322
      Hobart              18   33543322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    38   34665521
      Casey               18   44443222
      Mawson              58   45653674

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             32                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   0113 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct    20    Unsettled to Active
27 Oct    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods 
                possible
28 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Through UT day 25 October, the geomagnetic activity 
for the Australian/NZ region was at quiet to unsettled levels 
with isolated minor storm periods. In the Antarctic regions, 
the geomagnetic activity varied mostly from quiet to minor storm 
levels with isolated major storm periods. These rises in geomagnetic 
activity levels are due to the high speed solar wind stream from 
a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Due to the continued 
effect of this coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity may 
show enhancements to active levels on UT day 26 October and then 
gradually decrease to unsettled and then quiet levels through 
UT days 27 and 28 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs stayed mostly near predicted monthly values through 
UT day 25 October with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions 
as well as periods of minor to mild enhancements. Minor to mild 
MUF depressions in the mid- to high-latitude regions may be expected 
through UT days 26 and 27 October. Mostly normal MUFs may be 
expected through UT day 28 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct   -29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -5
Oct      -15
Nov      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
27 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for 25-26 Oct. MUFs stayed mostly near predicted 
monthly values in the Australian regions through UT day 25 October 
with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions as well as 
periods of minor to mild enhancements. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
in the Australian regions may be expected through UT days 26 
and 27 October. Mostly normal MUFs may be expected in this region 
through UT day 28 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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