[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 October 19 issued 2337 UT on 23 Oct 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 24 10:37:49 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 23 October. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The
solar wind speed was at nominal levels, varying mainly between
320-370 km/s over the UT day while the total IMF (Bt) was less
than 3 nT and the north south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +/-2 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase to
Strong levels from UT day 24 October due to the influence of
a high speed solar wind stream associated with a positive-polarity
coronal hole located just north of the equator. The solar wind
is expected to remain enhanced on UT day 25 October then start
to return to background values on 26 October. Very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 24-26 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 10001010
Cocos Island 0 1-100000
Darwin 1 10101011
Townsville 1 20001010
Learmonth 1 11001000
Alice Springs 1 10001011
Canberra 1 11001000
Hobart 1 10001010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 5 23300010
Mawson 5 11200033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 25 Active with possible Minor Storm periods
25 Oct 20 Active with possible Minor Storm periods
26 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 23 October
and is current for 23-25 Oct. Geomagnetic activity for the Australian/NZ
region was at Quiet levels over the last 24 hours with Antarctic
regions experiencing Unsettled conditions. On UT day 24 October,
conditions are expected to increase to Active conditions with
possible Minor Storm periods due to an expected arrival of a
high speed solar wind stream from a positive-polarity coronal
hole located just north of the equator. Active conditions with
possible Minor Storm periods are expected for UT day 25 October,
followed by Unsettled to Active conditions on 26 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed for
UT day 23 October. Variable HF conditions are expected for 24
October to 25 October with possible enhancements to depressed
MUFs due to increased geomagnetic activity around this time,
returning to mostly normal HF conditions on 26 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
25 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
26 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were at near predicted
monthly values over the AUS/NZ region with depressions of 20
to 30% for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. Variable HF conditions
are expected starting later on 24 October and into 25 October
ranging from enhancements to moderately depressed MUFs for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.52E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 31700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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