[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 October 19 issued 2337 UT on 22 Oct 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 23 10:37:26 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 22Oct. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed was at nominal levels at ~360km/s over the UT day while
the north south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-3nT.
Solar wind speed is expected to increase to Strong levels from
24Oct due to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a positive-polarity coronal hole located just
north of the equator. Very low solar activity is expected for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11110211
Cocos Island 2 01100220
Darwin 3 11110211
Townsville 4 11121211
Learmonth 5 21111222
Alice Springs 2 11010211
Canberra 2 11110210
Hobart 2 01110210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00010100
Casey 9 32321321
Mawson 6 10111224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct 25 Active
25 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for the Australian/NZ region was
at mostly Quiet levels over the last 24 hours with Antarctic
regions experiencing Unsettled conditions. Quiet conditions expected
for most of the UT day 23Oct. Active conditions with possible
Minor Storm periods expected for 24Oct due to an expected arrival
of a high speed solar wind stream from a positive-polarity coronal
hole located just north of the equator. Active conditions expected
for 25Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed for
22Oct. Similar HF conditions expected for 23Oct. Variable HF
conditions for 24Oct-25Oct with possible enhancements to depressed
MUFs due to increased geomagnetic activity around this time.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were at near predicted
monthly values over the AUS/NZ region with depressions of 20%
for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 24-36 hours. Variable HF conditions expected
for 24Oct-25Oct ranging from enhancements to notably depressed
MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions and poor ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 32200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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