[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 October 19 issued 2356 UT on 21 Oct 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 22 10:56:59 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 64/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 21Oct. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed was at nominal levels, ranging between 321km/s and 367km/s
and is currently at 345km/s at the time of this report. The north
south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-4 nT with a
brief sustained southward excursion between 0730UT-0930UT. Chance
of a notable increase in the solar wind speed to moderate levels
over the next 24 hours due to a narrow equatorial placed recurrent
coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on 17Oct. Solar
wind speed is expected to increase to Strong levels from late
in the UT day 23Oct due to the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream associated with another larger negative-polarity
coronal hole located just north of the equator. Very low solar
activity is expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22222011
Cocos Island 4 22221010
Darwin 6 32222011
Townsville 6 32222011
Learmonth 6 31222012
Alice Springs 5 22222011
Canberra 4 21221011
Hobart 4 21221011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 20030000
Casey 7 33230011
Mawson 11 42110044
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 12 Unsettled
24 Oct 25 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for the Australian/NZ region was
at mostly Quiet levels over the last 24 hours with Antarctic
regions experiencing mostly Unsettled conditions with isolated
Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for
22Oct with slight chance of an active period due to minor coronal
hole effects. Quiet conditions expected for most of the UT day
23Oct with possible Active periods late in the UT day followed
by Active conditions on 24Oct due to a high speed solar wind
stream associated with another larger negative-polarity coronal
hole located just north of the equator.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed for
21Oct. Normal HF conditions expected for 22Oct-23Oct. Variable
HF conditions for 24Oct with possible enhancements to depressed
MUFs due to increased geomagnetic activity around this time.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were at near predicted
monthly values over the AUS/NZ region with only slight depressions
of 20% for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days. Variable HF conditions expected
for 24Oct ranging from enhancements to notably depressed MUFs
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.3e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 45900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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