[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 18 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 19 10:31:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 18 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 19-21
October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 18 October, the solar wind
speed was at its background levels, varying in the range 330-390
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 5 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied mainly between +3/-4 nT. During
the next two UT days, 19-20 October, the solar wind speed is
expected to be mostly at nominal levels, although late on UT
day 20 October a recurrent coronal hole may become geoeffective;
this may result in a moderate to strong enhancement in the solar
wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 12113111
Cocos Island 3 02112101
Darwin 5 12113111
Townsville 6 12223111
Learmonth 5 12113201
Alice Springs 4 02113101
Canberra 3 01222011
Hobart 4 11222011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 11322100
Casey 9 34222112
Mawson 19 23322236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 7 Quiet
20 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 18 October, geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region was mostly at quiet levels with one unsettled period.
In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic activity varied mostly from
quiet to unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at quiet levels for the next two UT days, 19-20
October. Unsettled conditions are possible from late 20 October
due to coronal hole effects. Active periods are likely for 21
October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 19-21 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct -22 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
20 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
21 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 18 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
ranged mostly from near predicted monthly values to moderately
depressed ones for all Australian regions. Sporadic-E occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 19-21 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 70300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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