[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 17 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 18 10:31:37 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 17 October.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
18-20 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 17 October, the solar wind
speed was at background to slightly enhanced levels, varying
between 360-470 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied around 5 nT.
The north-south component of IMF Bz varied mainly between +/-
3 nT. During the next three UT days, 17-20 October, the solar
wind speed is expected to be at nominal levels although a negative
polarity coronal hole may become geoeffective late on UT day
20 October but only a moderate enhancement in the solar wind
is expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Cocos Island 3 21111110
Darwin 3 11121111
Townsville 6 21222122
Learmonth 5 21222111
Alice Springs 4 11221111
Canberra 3 11221001
Hobart 4 12222001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 11222000
Casey 12 34422212
Mawson 12 33221234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2221 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 5 Quiet
19 Oct 5 Quiet
20 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 17 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic activity varied from Quiet to Active levels. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
for the next three UT days 18-20 October. Possible Unsettled
periods from late 20 October due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 17 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
ranged mostly from near predicted monthly values to moderately
depressed ones for all regions. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next
3 UT days,18-20 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 86000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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