[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 October 19 issued 2339 UT on 11 Oct 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 12 10:39:48 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 11 October.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
12-14 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 11 October, the solar wind
speed varied between 430 km/s and 512 km/s, currently around
440 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between 2 to 5 nT. The north-south
component of IMF Bz varied between +/-4 nT and was mostly negative.
Mostly nominal to slightly enhanced solar wind speed is expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 October. A weak enhancement
is possible on UT days 13-14 October due to the possible influence of
a southern hemisphere negative-polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11222321
Cocos Island 5 01212320
Darwin 6 11222321
Townsville 6 11232211
Learmonth 6 11222321
Alice Springs 6 11222311
Gingin 6 11222321
Canberra 5 01232211
Launceston 8 12232321
Hobart 6 01232311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 11 01253311
Casey 11 24322322
Mawson 20 43322345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 1432 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
14 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
COMMENT: On UT day 11 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian regions. In the Antarctic
region, geomagnetic activity varied from Quiet to Active levels
with some isolated Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the
next 3 UT days (12-14 October) with a chance of isolated Active
periods on UT days 13-14 October due to the possible influence
of a southern hemisphere negative-polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to depressed by up to 30% during UT day 11 October.
For the next 3 UT days, 12-14 October, MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values with the possibility of
minor to moderate depressions. Degraded HF propagation conditions
are possible at high latitudes if geomagnetic activity levels
increase due to possible coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were from near predicted monthly values to depressed by
up to 30% during UT day 11 October. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 12-14
October, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values across the Australian region with the possibility of minor
to moderate depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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