[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 10 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 11 10:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 10 October.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
11-13 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During the first 8 hours of UT day 10 October,
the solar wind speed gradually increased from 390 km/s to 530
km/s and then stayed between 470 km/s and 510 km/s through the
remaining parts of the day. During this day, the total IMF Bt
showed a gradual decrease from around 10 nT to 2 nT. The north-south
component of IMF Bz initially changed from 7.5 nT to -9.2 nT
by 0334 UT, stayed south until around 0600 UT and then varied
between +3 nT and -4.5 nT during the remaining parts of the day.
Mostly nominal to slightly enhanced solar wind speed is expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 12321312
Cocos Island 5 12221211
Darwin 8 22321312
Townsville 9 23321312
Learmonth 9 23321312
Alice Springs 8 22321312
Gingin 6 12221222
Canberra 6 12321212
Launceston 10 13331322
Hobart 8 13321312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 03332411
Casey 15 35431212
Mawson 21 24533334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1224 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled
12 Oct 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled
13 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 10 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
quiet to unsettled levels in the Australian regions. In the Antarctic
region, geomagnetic activity varied from quiet to active levels
with a short minor storm period recorded at one station. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels for the next 2 UT days (11-12 October) with a slight possibility
of isolated active periods on high latitudes on these days. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at quiet levels on UT
day 13 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to depressed by up to 30% during UT day 10 October.
For the next 3 UT days, 11-13 October, MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values with the possibility of
minor to mild depressions on UT days 11 and 12 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Oct -12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were from near predicted monthly values to depressed by
up to 30% during UT day 10 October. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 11-13
October, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values across the Australian region with some possibility of
minor to mild depressions on UT days 11 and 12 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 35100 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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