[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 12 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 13 10:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 12 October.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
13-15 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 12 October, the solar wind
speed gradually decreased from around 440 km/s to currently around
370 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between 2 to 5 nT, and is currently
averaging around 3 nT. The north-south component of IMF Bz varied
between +/-4 nT and was mostly negative. The solar wind is expected
to continue to decrease towards background levels but a weak
enhancement is possible late on UT day 13 October or on 14 October
due to the possible influence of a southern hemisphere negative-polarity
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11122101
Cocos Island 1 10------
Darwin 3 21111102
Townsville 3 11121111
Learmonth 4 21122102
Alice Springs 2 11121001
Gingin 3 11022002
Canberra 2 11122000
Launceston 4 12122111
Hobart 3 11122001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11022000
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 14 43221144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1122 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
14 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 12 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic activity varied from Quiet to Active levels. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels for the next 3 UT days (13-15 October) with a chance of
isolated Active periods on UT days 13-14 October due to the possible
influence of a southern hemisphere negative-polarity coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: For the next 3 UT days, 13-15 October, MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values with the possibility
of minor to moderate depressions. Degraded HF propagation conditions
are possible at high latitudes if geomagnetic activity levels
increase due to possible coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 12 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values.
The Cocos Island region observed minor depressions during the
local night and the Niue Island region observed minor to moderate
depressions during both the local day and local night. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the
next 3 UT days, 13-15 October, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values across the Australian region with
the possibility of minor to moderate depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 95800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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