[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 October 19 issued 2333 UT on 02 Oct 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 3 09:33:15 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 02 October.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
disc (AR2749) and no active regions are expected to rotate onto
the visible disc. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three UT days, 03-04 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day
02 October, the solar wind speed was moderate, averaging between
430-530 km/s, currently around 460 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 2 to 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied between +/-4 nT. During the next UT day, 03 October, the
solar wind is expected to continue to decrease to background
levels as the influence of the recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole wanes, but may become moderately enhanced late in the UT
day if the HSS from a negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal
hole becomes geoeffective. On UT days 04-05 October, the solar
wind is expected to decrease to background levels as the influence
of the coronal holes wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 20033111
Cocos Island 4 11113111
Darwin 4 21023101
Townsville 6 21033111
Learmonth 6 21033111
Alice Springs 5 20033101
Gingin 7 20033222
Canberra 5 20033111
Launceston 6 20033211
Hobart 5 10033111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 10054200
Casey 10 32333122
Mawson 20 41223236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 4433 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 11 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active periods
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 5 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 02 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic
region, geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Active, with
some isolated Minor to Moderate Storm periods observed at Mawson
station and Macquarie Island. On UT day 03 October, global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels as the
influence of the coronal hole wanes, with a chance of Active
periods late on UT day 03 October due to possible coronal hole
effects. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to return to
Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 04-05 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are possible at high
latitudes if geomagnetic activity levels increase due to possible
coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
02 October. The Niue Island region had periods of moderate depressions
during the UT day. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 03-04 October, MUFs
are expected to be mainly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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