[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 03 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 4 09:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 03 October.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
04-06 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 03 October, the solar wind
speed gradually declined from around 480 km/s to 400 km/s, currently
around 410 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 to 5 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between
-4 to +3 nT. During the next UT day, 04 October, the solar wind
is expected to continue to decrease to background levels as the
influence of the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole wanes,
but may become moderately enhanced if the HSS from a negative
polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
On UT days 05-06 October, the solar wind is expected to continue
decrease to background levels as the influence of the coronal
holes wanes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 2 11110021
Learmonth 2 21110011
Alice Springs 2 11110011
Gingin 3 21110021
Canberra 1 11100011
Launceston 2 12110011
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 11110000
Casey 9 34320111
Mawson 10 33221233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3002 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance isolated Active
periods
05 Oct 7 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 03 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Unsettled with an isolated
Active period. On UT day 04 October, global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels as the influence
of the coronal hole wanes, with a chance of isolated Active periods
due to possible coronal hole effects. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day
05 October then Quiet levels on 06 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are possible on UT
days 04-05 October at high latitudes if geomagnetic activity
levels increase due to possible coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
03 October. In the Niue Island region, MUFs were mildly depressed
during the local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 04-06 October,
MUFs are expected to be mainly near predicted monthly values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list