[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 19 issued 2336 UT on 01 Oct 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 2 09:36:57 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 01 October.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible
disc. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three
UT days, 2-4 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 01 October,
the solar wind speed was moderate, varying mainly between 400-500
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 to 7 nT, and is currently
steady around 4.5 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
was predominantly southward during the first half of the UT day,
reaching -6.6 nT at 01/0419 UT, currently varying between -3
to +1 nT. During the next 2 UT days, 02-03 October, the solar
wind is expected to continue to decrease to background levels
as the influence of the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole
wanes. A negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole may
become geoeffective late on UT day 03 October but only a moderate
enhancement in the solar wind is expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22231101
Cocos Island 2 12111000
Darwin 4 22221101
Townsville 5 22231101
Learmonth 5 22231101
Alice Springs 4 22221001
Gingin 5 22230101
Canberra 5 22231100
Launceston 9 23341101
Hobart 5 22231101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 13452000
Casey 11 34331112
Mawson 23 45432153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3443 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 11 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active periods
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 01 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region, with an isolated
period of Active conditions at high latitudes. In the Antarctic
region, geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Active, with
some isolated Minor Storm periods observed at Mawson station
and Macquarie Island. On UT days 02-03 October, global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet and Unsettled levels as the
influence of the coronal hole wanes. There is a chance of Active
periods late on UT day 03 October due to possible coronal hole
effects, returning to Quiet to Unsettled on UT day 04 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are possible at high
latitudes due to recent geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
01 October. The Niue Island region observed enhanced MUFs during
the local day and night, but at the end of UT day 01 October
it is observing moderate MUF depressions which may continue during
the local day. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 2-4 October, MUFs are
expected to be mainly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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