[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 November 19 issued 2337 UT on 27 Nov 2019

Thu Nov 28 10:37:10 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 27 November. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots 
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (28-30 
November). A CME was observed in LASCO images erupting from the 
East limb around 0348UT, it is not expected to be geoeffective. 
No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 27 November, the solar wind speed remained 
slightly enhanced, varying between 370-420 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) varied between 2 nT and 6 nT. The north-south component 
of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be at background to slightly enhanced levels for the next 
three UT days, 28-30 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Cocos Island         1   11100110
      Darwin               3   11110211
      Townsville           3   11111211
      Learmonth            4   12111212
      Alice Springs        3   11110211
      Gingin               4   11111222
      Canberra             3   12111111
      Hobart               4   12211211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   01110100
      Casey               13   34422222
      Mawson              14   32222344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1    

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 27 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed 
Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 28-30 
November with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during 
the next 3 UT days, 28-30 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Nov   -36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
29 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
30 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near 
predicted monthly values to mildly and moderately depressed ones. 
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. For the next 
three UT days, 28-30 November, mildly depressed to near predicted 
monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3e+05 
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10e+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    76400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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