[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 26 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 27 10:31:34 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 26 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (27-29
November). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 26 November, the solar wind speed
remained slightly enhanced, varying between 500-400 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 6 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-3 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain at slightly enhanced levels for the
next three UT days, 27-29 November due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 0 10000100
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 2 11100111
Learmonth 2 11100112
Alice Springs 2 11100111
Gingin 1 11000111
Canberra 1 01000011
Hobart 1 11100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01000010
Casey 11 34421112
Mawson 6 43101110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1122 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated
Active period.
28 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 26 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next three UT days,
27-29 November, with a chance of an isolated Active period today,
27 November due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during
the next 3 UT days, 27-29 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
28 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
29 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
monthly predicted values to mildly depressed. Sporadic E occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar ionospheric support is
expected for the next 3 UT days, 27-29 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 72600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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