[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 25 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 26 10:31:38 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 25 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (26-28
November). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 25 November, the solar wind speed
remained enhanced, varying between 400-500 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 4 nT and 10 nT, currently around 4 nT. The
north-south component of IMF, Bz, was mainly southward, varying
between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at
slightly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 26-28 November
due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11120211
Cocos Island 1 10010110
Darwin 3 11020211
Townsville 4 11121221
Learmonth 3 11120211
Alice Springs 2 01020201
Gingin 3 11110212
Canberra 1 01110110
Hobart 2 01110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00210010
Casey 11 24332122
Mawson 9 33222213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3231 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated
Active period.
28 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 25 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next three
UT days, 26-28 November, with a chance of an isolated Active
period on 27 November due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during
the next 3 UT days, 26-28 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
27 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
28 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near monthly predicted values to slightly depressed. Sporadic
E occurrences were observed over some sites. Similar ionospheric
support is expected for the next 3 UT days, 26-28 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 82400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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