[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 28 Nov 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 29 10:31:44 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 28 November. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots 
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (29 
November-01 December). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in 
the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 28 November, the 
solar wind speed was near background levels, varying between 
330-400km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 5 nT. 
The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-4 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its background 
levels for the next three UT days, 29 November-01 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101121
      Cocos Island         2   10100120
      Darwin               3   21101021
      Townsville           3   21101121
      Learmonth            3   11101122
      Alice Springs        2   10101121
      Gingin               4   21100131
      Canberra             2   10101121
      Hobart               3   11101221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001110
      Casey               13   34322133
      Mawson              12   32102352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1100 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov     5    Quiet
30 Nov     5    Quiet
01 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 28 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed 
mainly Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 
29 November-01 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during 
the next 3 UT days, 29 November-01 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov   -27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
30 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
01 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near 
predicted monthly values to mildly and moderately depressed ones. 
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. For the next 
three UT days, 29 November-01 December, mildly depressed to near 
predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    62700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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