[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 21 Nov 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 22 10:31:37 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 21 November. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days (22 to 24 November). There are currently no sunspots 
on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. As anticipated, the solar 
wind stream stayed strong through UT day 21 November due to the 
coronal hole effect. During this day, the solar wind speed gradually 
increased from 360 km/s to 600 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 3 and 12 nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between 
-7/+7 nT and the solar wind particle density between 2 ppcc and 
10 ppcc. This rise in solar wind parameter is due to the effect 
of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal 
hole. This effect is expected to continue through UT days 22 
and 23 November showing a gradual decline through 23 and 24 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Predominantly 
quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22223233
      Cocos Island         9   12123332
      Darwin               8   22123223
      Townsville          11   22223234
      Learmonth           11   22223333
      Alice Springs        9   22223223
      Gingin              11   22223333
      Canberra             5   12212212
      Hobart              11   22323233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    14   12135332
      Casey               22   54433234
      Mawson              27   43323356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov    18    Mostly unsettled to active
23 Nov    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods 
                possible
24 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Through UT day 21 November, the geomagnetic activity 
stayed predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels in the Australian 
and the Antarctic regions. Isolated active and minor storm periods 
were also observed in the Antarctic regions. Due to the continued 
effect of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole, global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at unsettled to active 
levels through UT day 22 November and then show a gradual decline 
through UT days 23 and 24 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values to depressed 
by up to 25%. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed 
during the next 3 UT days, 22 to 24 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Nov   -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                40%
23 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
24 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near monthly 
predicted values to depressed by up to 25%. MUFs in the Antarctic 
region were near monthly predicted values. Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions may be observed in the Australian region during 
the next 3 UT days, 22 to 24 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    30000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list