[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 20 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 21 10:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 20 November.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days (21 to 23 November). There are currently no sunspots
on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During the first half of
the UT day 20 November, the solar wind speed stayed mostly between
310 and 330 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 1 and 4 nT, the
north-south component of IMF (Bz) between -1.5/+1.5 nT and the
solar wind particle density between 2 ppcc and 5 ppcc. As anticipated,
through the second half of the day the solar wind stream started
to get stronger. By the time of this report (~2300UT), the solar
wind speed increased to around 360 km/s, Bt to 7 nT, Bz turned
predominantly south to -6.8 nT and the solar wind particle density
increased to over 10 ppcc. This rise in solar wind parameter
seems to be due to the arrival of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole. This effect is expected to continue
through UT days 21 and 22 November and then decline gradually.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11000012
Cocos Island 1 01000012
Darwin 2 11000012
Townsville 3 11001122
Learmonth 4 22000113
Alice Springs 1 01000012
Gingin 3 11000013
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 2 02100012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 02100012
Casey 9 34310022
Mawson 4 13000113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 18 Mostly unsettled to active
22 Nov 18 Mostly unsettled to active
23 Nov 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed predominantly at quiet levels
in the Australian and Antarctic regions through UT day 20 November.
Isolated unsettled and active periods were also observed in the
Antarctic regions. Due to the effect of a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to gradually rise to unsettled and later active levels through
UT days 21 November and stay at these levels through 22 November.
A gradual decline to the global geomagnetic activity is expected
through UT day 23 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
22 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values to depressed
by up to 25%. Minor to moderate, and at times significant, MUF
depressions may be observed during the next 3 UT days, 21 to
23 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
50%
22 Nov -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
50%
23 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near monthly
predicted values to depressed by up to 25%. Some periods of minor
MUF enhancements were also observed in the northern areas of
this region. MUFs in the Antarctic region were near monthly predicted
values. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in
the Australian region during the next 3 UT days, 21 to 23 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 35600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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