[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 19 Nov 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 20 10:31:31 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 19 November. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Through 
UT day 19 November, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 
330 and 360 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 1.8 and 4.2 nT, 
the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between -2.7/+3.5 nT and 
the solar wind particle density between 2 ppcc and 5 ppcc. Solar 
wind stream is expected to remain at ambient levels through the 
first half of the UT day 20 November and then show gradual strengthening 
through the rest of the UT day 20 November and 21 November due 
to the effect of a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole. 
Due to this coronal hole effect, the solar wind parameters are 
expected to remain enhanced on UT day 22 November as well. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days (20 to 22 November).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01000211
      Cocos Island         1   11000100
      Darwin               2   01000211
      Townsville           4   22011212
      Learmonth            2   01000221
      Alice Springs        1   01000201
      Gingin               2   01000211
      Canberra             2   00000130
      Hobart               2   02100111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   01100100
      Casey                9   34410110
      Mawson               7   23211222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible
21 Nov    16    Quiet to active
22 Nov    16    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed predominantly at quiet levels 
in the Australian and Antarctic regions through UT day 19 November. 
Isolated unsettled and active periods were also observed in the 
Antarctic regions. Due to the effect of a recurrent positive 
polarity coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to gradually rise to unsettled and later active levels through 
UT days 20 and 21 November and stay at these levels through 22 
November too.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
22 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for UT day 19 November 
with maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranging from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately depressed in low and mid latitude 
regions. MUFs stayed mostly near predicted monthly values in 
high latitude regions during this day. Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions may be expected for the next three UT days, 20 to 
22 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Nov   -29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
21 Nov   -40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                40%
22 Nov   -40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                40%

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the AUS/NZ 
region for UT day 19 November with maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) ranging from near predicted monthly values to moderately 
depressed for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. MUFs stayed 
mostly near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS and Antarctic 
regions during this day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may 
be expected in this region for the next three UT days, 20 to 
22 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    36900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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