[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 18 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 19 10:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 18 November. There are
currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Through
UT day 18 November, the solar wind speed varied mostly between
350 and 370 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 2.3 and 4.1 nT,
the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between +3/-3 nT and the
solar wind particle density between 4 ppcc and 6 ppcc. Bz showed
more variation during the late hours of the UT day. Solar wind
stream is expected to remain at ambient levels through UT day
19 November and then show gradual strengthening through UT day
20 and possibly 21 November due to the effect of a positive polarity
recurrent coronal hole. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days (19 to 21 November).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 0 00000010
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 01000001
Townsville 1 11010011
Learmonth 0 00000011
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Gingin 0 00000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 13211011
Mawson 6 11012133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 6 Quiet
20 Nov 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
21 Nov 16 Mostly unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels in the Australian/NZ
regions and from quiet to unsettled levels in the Antarctic regions
through UT day 18 November. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to stay mostly at quiet levels through UT day 19 November and
then show a gradual rise to unsettled and later active levels
through UT days 20 and 21 November due to the effect of a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the low and
mid latitude regions for UT day 18 November with maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) ranging from near predicted monthly values
to moderately depressed in these regions. MUFs stayed near predicted
monthly values for high latitude regions during this day. Similar
ionospheric support is expected for UT day 19 November. Further
MUF depressions may be observed through UT days 20 and 21 November
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov -37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
21 Nov -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the AUS/NZ
region for UT day 18 November with maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) ranging from near predicted monthly values to moderately
depressed for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. MUFs stayed
near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic
regions during this day. Similar ionospheric support is expected
for UT day 19 November. Further MUF depressions may be observed
through UT days 20 and 21 November due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 63200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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