[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 November 19 issued 2336 UT on 22 Nov 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 23 10:36:16 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 22 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (23
to 25 November). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind stream remained
strong through UT day 22 November. During this day, the solar
wind speed varied between 500 km/s to 650 km/s, then started
to gradually decline after about 22/1900 UT and is currently
around 470 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) started the UT day around
8 nT then decreased, currently varying between 4-7 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied between -5 nT to +4 nT and was mainly
southward. The elevated solar wind parameters are due to the
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent positive-polarity
coronal hole. The influence of the coronal hole has started to
wane and is expected to continue to gradually decline through
23-25 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22233322
Cocos Island 7 21213321
Darwin 7 21223222
Townsville 8 22233221
Learmonth 11 32233322
Alice Springs 10 22233322
Gingin 12 32233332
Canberra 8 22233221
Hobart 10 22333321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 13 22153321
Casey 20 45433232
Mawson 35 44333664
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active
periods
24 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Through UT day 22 November, geomagnetic activity was
at Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic
region observed mainly Unsettled to Active levels with isolated
Minor to Major storm periods. Due to the continued effect of
a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole, global geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay at Quiet to Unsettled levels for
the next three UT days, 23-25 November, with the chance of isolated
Active periods on UT day 23 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during
the next 3 UT days, 23 to 25 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
24 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
25 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near monthly predicted values to depressed by up to 15-30%. Minor
to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed in the Australian
region during the next 3 UT days, 23 to 25 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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