[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 09 Nov 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 10 10:31:33 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 09 November. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active 
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low 
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 10-12 
November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 09 November, the solar wind 
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 310-350 
km/s. The total IMF Bt ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF Bz varied in the range +3/-3 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to become mildly enhanced today (UT day 
10 November) due to a patchy negative polarity equatorial coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101101
      Cocos Island         1   11100100
      Darwin               2   11101111
      Townsville           3   12111111
      Learmonth            2   11101102
      Gingin               2   21000101
      Canberra             2   02110011
      Hobart               2   02111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   01011000
      Casey                9   33331211
      Mawson              10   42111214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was 
at quiet levels on UT day 09 November. In the Antarctic regions, 
the geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. 
The two day outlook (UT day 10 and 11 November) is for the global 
geomagnetic activity to be mainly at quiet levels and at times 
may increase to unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects. 
There is a remote chance of isolated active periods on UT days 
10 and 11 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over 
the the next three UT days, 10-12 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Nov   -26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mildly depressed 
to near predicted monthly values over most parts of the Australian 
region during UT day 09 November. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences 
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 10-12 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    30800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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