[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 10 Nov 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 11 10:31:32 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 10 November. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active 
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low 
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 
November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 10 November, the solar wind 
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 300-360 
km/s. The total IMF Bt ranged between 1 nT and 5 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF Bz varied in the range +3/-3 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be mostly at its background level over 
the next 3 UT days. Some mild enhancements in solar winds are 
possible due to small patchy coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10111000
      Cocos Island         0   00110000
      Darwin               1   10110000
      Townsville           2   01121010
      Learmonth            1   00111001
      Alice Springs        2   2-111001
      Gingin               1   10111001
      Canberra             1   00111000
      Hobart               2   11112000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                5   23221001
      Mawson               4   32121000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov     5    Quiet
12 Nov     5    Quiet
13 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian and Antarctic 
region was at quiet levels on UT day 10 November. The three day 
outlook (UT day 11 and 13 November) is for the global geomagnetic 
activity to be mostly at quiet levels and at times may increase 
to unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over 
the the next three UT days, 11-13 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov   -29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mildly depressed 
to near predicted monthly values over most parts of the Australian 
region during UT day 10 November. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences 
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 11-13 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    30300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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