[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Nov 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 9 10:31:29 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day 08 November. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active 
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very Low 
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 09-11 
November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 08 November, the solar wind 
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 310-350 
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT and the 
north-south component of the IMF, Bz, varied in the range +3/-4 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be at background levels 
for the next UT day, 09 November, but may become moderately enhanced 
either late on 09 November or early on 10 November due to a patchy 
negative polarity equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11011000
      Cocos Island         1   11010000
      Darwin               2   21011001
      Townsville           2   11011111
      Learmonth            2   11011101
      Alice Springs        1   11001000
      Gingin               2   11011110
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                8   33222121
      Mawson               8   21022134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2101 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was 
at Quiet levels on UT day 08 November. In the Antarctic regions, 
the geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly at Quiet 
levels for the next UT day, 09 November, but may increase to 
Unsettled levels either late on 09 November or early on 10 November 
due to weak coronal hole effects. There is a chance of isolated 
Active periods on UT days 10 and 11 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over 
the the next three UT days, 09-11 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   -32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
10 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
11 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values to mildly depressed ones over most parts of the 
Australian region during UT day 08 November. The Cocos Island, 
Niue Island and Northern Australian regions experienced some 
periods with moderate depressions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences 
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 09-11 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    40500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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