[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 November 19 issued 2332 UT on 07 Nov 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 8 10:32:06 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day 07 November.
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible
disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible
disc. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three
UT days, 08-10 November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 07 November,
the solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 440 km/s
down to currently around 360 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached
a maximum of 5.7 nT at 07/0412 UT, then began to decrease, currently
varying between 1-4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF,
Bz, reached a minimum of -4.2 nT at 07/0149 UT, but is currently
varying between +/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be at background levels for the next two UT days, 08-09 November,
but may become moderately enhanced either late on 09 November
or early on 10 November due to a patchy negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21101101
Cocos Island 1 11000100
Darwin 2 21001101
Townsville 2 21101101
Learmonth 3 22111101
Alice Springs 2 21001101
Gingin 2 21101101
Canberra 2 12010001
Hobart 2 12111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 22020000
Casey 10 34421101
Mawson 13 44221233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 1003
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 5 Quiet
09 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was
at Quiet levels on UT day 07 November. In the Antarctic regions,
the geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mainly Quiet levels
for the next two UT days, 08-09 November, but may increase to
Unsettled levels either late on 09 November or early on 10 November
due to weak coronal hole effects. There is a chance of isolated
Active periods on UT day 10 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) depressions may be
observed over the the next three UT days, 08-10 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
09 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
10 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to mildly depressed over most parts of the Australian
region during UT day 07 November. The Cocos Island, Niue Island
and Northern Australian regions experienced some periods with
moderate depressions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 08-10 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 53000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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