[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 04 Nov 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 5 10:31:36 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 04 November. 
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible 
disc. Very low solar activity is expected for the next three 
UT days 05-07 November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 04 November, 
the solar wind speed was at its background levels, starting the 
UT day between 290 to 310 km/s, then increased to reach a maximum 
of 408 km/s at 04/2242 UT, currently around 380 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) started around 2 nT then increased to fluctuate between 
0 nT and 9 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between 
-5 to +8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mainly at 
background to slightly enhanced levels for the next three UT 
days, 05-07 November due to weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11321111
      Cocos Island         3   01321100
      Darwin               4   11321100
      Townsville           6   11322121
      Learmonth            5   11222112
      Alice Springs        4   11222101
      Gingin               3   10221101
      Canberra             2   01211011
      Hobart               4   11311111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   01222010
      Casey               10   23432112
      Mawson               7   23212113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was 
at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 04 November. In the Antarctic 
regions, the geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels, 
with an isolated Active period. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days 
05-07 November with possible Unsettled periods due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) depressions may be 
observed over the the next three UT days, 05-07 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Nov   -32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
06 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
07 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
were moderately depressed to near predicted monthly values during 
UT day 04 November. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were 
observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 05-07 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    22600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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