[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 November 19 issued 2334 UT on 05 Nov 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 6 10:34:25 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 05 November. 
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible 
disc. Very low solar activity is expected for the next three 
UT days, 06-08 November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 05 November, 
the solar wind speed reached a maximum of 450 km/s at 05/1431 
UT; it is currently averaging around 420 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) started the UT day varying between 2-7 nT, then gradually 
decreased to vary between 3-4 nT. The north-south component of 
the IMF, Bz, varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be at slightly enhanced levels for the next three 
UT days, 06-08 November due to weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21122211
      Cocos Island         3   11121210
      Darwin               5   21122211
      Townsville           5   21122211
      Learmonth            5   21122211
      Alice Springs        4   11122211
      Gingin               4   21011221
      Canberra             3   21012111
      Hobart               4   21012211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   11002210
      Casey               11   34322212
      Mawson              21   42122455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1121 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was 
at Quiet levels on UT day 05 November. In the Antarctic regions, 
the geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels, with 
an isolated Minor Storm period. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next three 
UT days, 06-08 November, due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) depressions may be 
observed over the the next three UT days, 06-08 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Nov   -29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
07 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
08 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values to moderately depressed over most parts of the 
Australian region during UT day 05 November. The Northern Australian, 
Cocos Island and Niue Island regions experienced periods with 
moderate to severe depressions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences 
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 06-08 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    50600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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