[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 03 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 4 10:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 03 November.
There is currently one simple stable sunspot, AR 2751(N05W26)
on the visible disk. Very low solar activity is expected for
the next three UT days 04-06 November. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT
day 03 November, the solar wind speed was at its background levels,
under 340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 6
nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between +5 nT
and -2 nT, mainly positive. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mainly at background to slightly enhanced levels for the
next three UT days, 04-06 November due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 12100000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 12100001
Learmonth 2 12100001
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Canberra 1 12100000
Hobart 1 12100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 5 33210001
Mawson 6 32100004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 5 Quiet
05 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian was at Quiet
level on UT day 03 November. In the Antarctic regions, the geomagnetic
activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next
three UT days 04-06 November with possible Unsettled periods
due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) depressions may be
observed over the the next two UT day, 04-05 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
06 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were moderately depressed to near predicted monthly values during
UT day 03 November. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next two UT days, 04-05 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 28200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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