[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 3 10:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 02 November.
There is currently one simple sunspot, AR 2750(S28E18) but remained
stable and inactive. Very low solar activity is expected for
the next three UT days 03-05 November. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT
day 02 November, the solar wind speed was near its background
levels, varying in the range 340-380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied between 2 nT and 4 nT. The north-south component of IMF,
Bz, varied mainly between +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mainly at background to slightly enhanced levels for the
next three UT days, 03-05 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 10000011
Learmonth 0 10000001
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 23210012
Mawson 5 20000024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2200 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 7 Mostly Quiet. Possible occasional Unsettled periods.
04 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian was at Quiet
level on UT day 02 November. In the Antarctic regions, the geomagnetic
activity was mostly Quiet. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days 03-05
November with possible Unsettled periods due to weak coronal
hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Nov Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Nov Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) depressions are possible
for the the next three UT day,03-05 November due to low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov -39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were moderately depressed
to near predicted monthly values during UT day 02 November. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs
depressions are possible for the the next three UT day,03-05
November, due to low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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