[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 May 19 issued 2346 UT on 24 May 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 25 09:46:53 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 24May. The sun is currently 
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and 
there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed ranged 
between 303km/s to 364km/s and is currently 344km/s at the time 
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged 
between +3 nT and -4 nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed is 
expected to remain at/near ambient levels with the chance of 
mild enhancements over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole 
effects. Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12100111
      Cocos Island         2   11010111
      Darwin               2   11101111
      Townsville           3   12101112
      Learmonth            2   12100111
      Culgoora             2   12100111
      Gingin               2   12100111
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           3   12101111
      Hobart               1   11001011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   01001000
      Casey                5   23201111
      Mawson              12   33220125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1112 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled
26 May     5    Quiet
27 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the Australian 
region with possible Unsettled periods over the next 24 hours 
due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled with possible 
Active periods for Antarctic regions. Quiet conditions expected 
for 26May-27May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric 
support observed in the Northern Hemisphere with minor depressions 
at high latitudes to occasional enhancements across all latitudes. 
Variable ionospheric support for Southern hemisphere with enhancements 
and depressions at low to high latitudes. Similar HF conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 May   -10    Near predicted monthly values
27 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for 
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Poor ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions with mostly disturbed conditions 
over the UT day. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    30400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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