[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 May 19 issued 2346 UT on 24 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 25 09:46:53 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 24May. The sun is currently
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and
there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed ranged
between 303km/s to 364km/s and is currently 344km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +3 nT and -4 nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed is
expected to remain at/near ambient levels with the chance of
mild enhancements over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole
effects. Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 2 12100111
Cocos Island 2 11010111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 3 12101112
Learmonth 2 12100111
Culgoora 2 12100111
Gingin 2 12100111
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 3 12101111
Hobart 1 11001011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 0 01001000
Casey 5 23201111
Mawson 12 33220125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1112 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
26 May 5 Quiet
27 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic
regions. Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the Australian
region with possible Unsettled periods over the next 24 hours
due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled with possible
Active periods for Antarctic regions. Quiet conditions expected
for 26May-27May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric
support observed in the Northern Hemisphere with minor depressions
at high latitudes to occasional enhancements across all latitudes.
Variable ionospheric support for Southern hemisphere with enhancements
and depressions at low to high latitudes. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
26 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
27 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions with mostly disturbed conditions
over the UT day. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 30400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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