[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 May 19 issued 2345 UT on 25 May 2019

Sun May 26 09:45:00 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 25May. The sun is currently 
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and 
there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed ranged 
between 296km/s to 344km/s and is currently 331km/s at the time 
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged 
between +3 nT and -4 nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed is 
expected to remain at/near ambient levels for the next 2 days. 
Expected increase in solar wind speed on 28May due to anticipated 
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere 
located negative polarity coronal hole that began crossing the 
central meridian early today. Very Low solar activity is expected 
over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001110
      Cocos Island         0   01000010
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           3   12101111
      Learmonth            1   10001111
      Culgoora             1   11001110
      Gingin               1   10001110
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Launceston           2   11012110
      Hobart               2   10012110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                4   22110211
      Mawson               4   21100123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1211 1122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May     5    Quiet
27 May     5    Quiet
28 May    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian/NZ region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the Australian/NZ 
region and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic regions 
on 26May-27May. Unsettled conditions expected for Australian/NZ 
region with possible Active periods for 28May while Antarctic 
regions should experience Unsettled to Active conditions with 
isolated Minor Storm periods due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric 
support observed in the Northern Hemisphere with minor depressions 
at mid-low latitudes to occasional enhancements across all latitudes. 
Ionospheric support for Southern hemisphere saw near predicted 
monthly values for MUFs with notable enhancements for low to 
high latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 May    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
27 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
28 May   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for 
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Notable 
periods of degraded ionospheric support for Antarctic regions 
over the UT day. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    26900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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