[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 May 19 issued 2342 UT on 23 May 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 24 09:42:22 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 23May. The sun is currently 
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and 
there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed has been 
close to ambient levels, ranging between 328km/s to 377km/s and 
is currently 344km/s at the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -4 nT from 
00UT to 16UT. A notable southward excursion was observed between 
16UT-22UT with Bz reaching -5.8nT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to remain at/near ambient levels for 24May and 26May. Chance 
of enhanced solar wind speeds 25May due to mild coronal hole 
effects. Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121011
      Cocos Island         2   11111011
      Darwin               3   11121012
      Townsville           4   12121012
      Learmonth            3   11121021
      Culgoora             3   01131011
      Gingin               2   10020121
      Canberra             1   01020000
      Launceston           3   01031111
      Hobart               3   01031011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   00031000
      Casey                8   13420122
      Mawson              20   22212165

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May     5    Quiet
25 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled
26 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic 
regions with an isolated Active period towards the end of the 
UT day. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the 
Australian region 24May-26May with possible Unsettled periods 
on 25May due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
for Antarctic regions for the same time period with possible 
Active conditions 25May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric 
support observed in the Northern Hemisphere with minor depressions 
at high latitudes to occasional enhancements across all latitudes, 
similarly with the southern hemisphere. Similar HF conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 May    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
25 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 May   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for 
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Variable 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced 
MUF's to poor/disturbed conditions. Similar HF conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:    28900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list