[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 May 19 issued 2336 UT on 14 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 15 09:36:08 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 14 May. There
are currently two sunspot regions on the solar disk visible from
the earth side- region 2740 (N08W64) and region 2741 (N05W27)
at 14/2215UT. Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of
a previously observed weak CME. Solar wind speed increased from
450 km/s 570 km/s, Bz went southwards up to around -15 nT and
Bt increased up to 15 nT during the first nine hours of UT day
14 May. Solar wind speed then gradually decreased to 480 km/s
by 2230 UT and Bz stayed close to the normal value (between +/-2nT)
during this period. Two CMEs, that were observed on 12 and 13
May, are expected to hit the earth on 16 May which may strengthen
the solar wind stream on 16 through to 17 May UT days. Due to
the effect of another CME observed on 11 May and some coronal
hole effects, solar wind stream may stay strong on 15 May too.
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
3 UT days (15 to 17 May) with some possibility of isolated C-class
activity on 15 and 16 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 16 24532321
Cocos Island 11 24421320
Darwin 13 24432320
Townsville 18 25532321
Learmonth 16 24532330
Culgoora 15 24532221
Gingin 14 24432331
Canberra 15 24532320
Launceston 23 25632331
Hobart 21 24632331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 33 16653431
Casey 16 35431222
Mawson 78 57643584
Davis 30 45443263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2112 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 25 Unsettled to minor storm
16 May 40 Unsettled to major storm
17 May 30 Major storm then down to unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 14 May and
is current for 14-17 May. Geomagnetic activity on UT day 14 May
in Australian region increased up to minor storm levels. Similar
level of activity may be expected on 15 May due to previously
observed CME activity and up to major storm levels on 16 and
17 May due to other CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
16 May Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
17 May Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during the last
24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected for the next three UT days (15
to 17 May) due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 120% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
16 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
17 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during the last
24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected for the next
three UT days (15 to 17 May) in this region due to expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 52600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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