[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 May 19 issued 2334 UT on 15 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 16 09:34:46 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 15 May, with
one short-lived C-class flare (C2.0) and few weak B-class flares.
These flares were all from Active Region 2741, which is currently
located near N05W42. The second Active Region AR2740 is currently
located near the west limb (N08W78) and has been quiet over the
last 24 hours. Very low levels of solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days (16 to 18 May) with a chance of more isolated
C-class flares. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
were observed in available coronagraphic imagery for UT day 15
May. The CMEs associated with 10/2346UT, 12/1900 UT and 13/1546
UT erupting filaments are expected to have a significant effect
at Earth during the next 24-48 hours (UT day 16-17 May). During
the last 24 hours, solar wind speed mostly fluctuated around
450 km/s. These moderately elevated winds are the aftermath of
an earlier, possibly undetected CME. The total IMF (Bt) ranged
from 6 nT and 10 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
ranged between +4 nT and +9 nT, remaining Northward throughout
the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected further increase and
may reach high levels in response to the arrival of the three
CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 3 02101221
Cocos Island 4 02211220
Darwin 5 02211231
Townsville 6 12212231
Learmonth 6 12212230
Culgoora 4 02101222
Gingin 2 01101220
Canberra 2 02101120
Launceston 3 12101121
Hobart 1 01101110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 2 01100120
Casey 6 33300001
Mawson 7 42202220
Davis 6 32311210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 38 3674 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 29 Initially Quiet, then reaching Minor Storm
17 May 25 Initially at Minor Storm, then becoming Quiet
18 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 14 May and
is current for 14-17 May. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels
across the Australian and Antarctica region on UT day 15 May.
On UT days 16 and 17 May, geomagnetic activity is expected to
reach Active to Minor Storm levels, in response of the arrival
of the 10, 12 and 13 May CMEs. Activity can also reach Major
Storm level if IMF Bz remains southward for prolonged periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
17 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were moderately depressed
in the high and mid Northern Hemisphere regions during the last
24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected for the next three UT days (16
to 18 May) due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 15 May
and is current for 15-17 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
ranged from near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced
levels during the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected for the next three UT days (16 to 18 May) in
the Southern Australian and Antarctic region due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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