[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 May 19 issued 2352 UT on 13 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 14 09:52:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 13 May, with
a long duration but weak B-class flare (B3.5). This flare was
from Active Region 2741, which is currently located near the
solar centre (N05W14). The B3.5 peaked at 13/1552 UT. There was
also a filament eruption from near the vicinity of AR2741 at
13/1546 UT. These effects appear to have triggered a CME first
observed in the LASCO C2 imagery starting at 13/1712 UT. More
details on the possible impact of this CME at earth will be provided
after the completion of model runs. The second Active Region
AR2740 is currently located at N08W51 and has been quiet over
the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low
on UT days 14-16 May with a slight chance of isolated C-class
flares. The CME associated with 10/2346UT filament is expected
to have a significant earth directed component with the estimated
shock arrival time early UT day 15 May. Another CME associated
with the filament erupting after 12/1900 UT is expected to also
cause significant impact at earth with the estimated shock arrival
time of near 0900 UT on 16 May. The solar wind speed during the
last 24 hours increased, with a sudden change near 13/2200 UT.
This is possibly in response to a prior small CME which was not
modelled due to missing satellite imagery. The current solar
wind speed is near 500 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 7
nT and 10 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +6 nT and -6 nT and was weakly southward for some parts
of the UT day. Solar wind speeds are expected to be moderately
enhanced today, UT 14 May and then further increase on the subsequent
two UT days (15-16 May) due to the arrival of the effects from
the 10 and 12 May CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 3 00121211
Cocos Island 2 00121111
Darwin 3 10121211
Townsville 4 10221212
Learmonth 4 00121222
Culgoora 3 00121211
Gingin 3 00111221
Canberra 2 00021211
Launceston 4 00122311
Hobart 2 00021211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 6 00030421
Casey 5 12221211
Mawson 27 32222636
Davis 10 32332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 2110 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 15 Unsettled to Active
15 May 35 Active to Minor Storm
16 May 40 Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 13 May and
is current for 15-17 May. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels
across the Australian region on UT day 13 May. Mostly Quiet to
Active levels were observed in Antarctica. On UT day 14 May,
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Unsettled to
Active due the current small CME effect. Conditions are expected
to reach Active to Minor Storm levels, with a chance of isolated
Major Storm periods on UT days, 15-16 May, due to expected CME
passage associated the 10 and 12 May filament eruptions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
15 May -25 Near predicted monthly values
16 May -35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during the last 24 hours.
Sporadic E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde stations.
Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are
expected for today, UT day 14 May. Possible MUF depressions from
May 15 due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 14400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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