[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 19 issued 2335 UT on 12 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 13 09:35:15 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 12 May, with
no significant flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk visible from the Earth, region 2740(N08W38)
and region 2741(N05W01). Region 2740 continued to decay while
region 2741 remained stable. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low on UT days, 13-15 May with a slight chance of isolated
C-class flares. The CME associated with the filament eruption
after 10/2346UT was further analysed, it is expected to have
a significant earth directed component with the estimated shock
arrival time early UT day 15 May. A filament centred near region
2741 disappeared starting 12/0200UT. Discontinuity observed in
LASCO C2 imagery made analysis difficult but data gap that immediately
followed show CME activity, likely to be associated with the
filament eruption. This will be further analysis when data become
available. Solar wind parameters showed a slow decay after the
6/2346 CME passage. The solar wind speed varied mainly around
350 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) decreased to 8 nT while the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range of +/- 5 nT. Solar
wind speeds are expected to be at nominal levels over the next
two days, 13-14 May before a significant increase on 15 May due
the anticipated CME passage.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00000010
Cocos Island 0 00000010
Darwin 1 10100111
Townsville 2 11100111
Learmonth 0 01000010
Culgoora 0 00000010
Gingin 0 00000011
Canberra 0 00000010
Launceston 1 10100010
Hobart 1 10100010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 1 21100000
Casey 5 23300020
Mawson 10 43200124
Davis 5 23310020
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26 5444 4234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 7 Quiet
14 May 7 Quiet
15 May 35 Quiet to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 12 May. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
levels were observed in Antarctica. On UT days 13-14 May, geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain at Quiet levels. Conditions are
expected reach Active to Minor Storm levels, with a chance of
isolated Major Storm periods on UT day, 15 May due to expected
CME passage.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
14 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
15 May -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during the last 24 hours.
Sporadic E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde stations.
Spread F periods observed at times at Hobart station. Mostly
normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected
for the next two UT days, 13-14 May. Possible MUF depressions
from May 15 due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 11300 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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