[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 May 19 issued 2333 UT on 05 May 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 6 09:33:38 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              76/14              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours 
with only B-class flares, the largest flare a B9.8 at 05/1342 
UT. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the solar 
disk visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low to Low on 6-8 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 5 May, the solar 
wind speed gradually decreased, starting around 490 km/s, currently 
around 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) mainly varied between 2 to 
4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between 
+/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to become moderately enhanced 
on 6 and 7 May due to a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole, 
then start to weaken on 8 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00001100
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               1   11000101
      Townsville           2   11101111
      Learmonth            1   01001100
      Culgoora             0   00000101
      Gingin               0   00001100
      Canberra             0   00000100
      Launceston           1   11001100
      Hobart               0   00001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   22211211
      Mawson              10   42212133
      Davis                8   23322121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   1233 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active periods
07 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active periods
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 5 May. Quiet to Active levels were 
observed in Antarctica. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels, with isolated Active 
periods, on 6 and 7 May due the effects associated with a small 
recurrent coronal hole, returning to Quiet to Unsettled levels 
on 8 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted 
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 6-8 May, 
with a chance of minor MUF depressions on UT days 7-8 May due 
to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    -2    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
08 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during 
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Sporadic E layers 
were observed over most of the Australian region. Mostly normal 
HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for 
the next three UT days, 6-8 May, in the Australian/NZ regions, 
with a chance of minor MUF depressions on UT days 7-8 May due 
to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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