[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 May 19 issued 2337 UT on 04 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 5 09:37:01 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 74/11 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours with
two C-class flares, a C1.0 flare at 03/2331 UT and a C2.1 flare
at 04/2243 UT. There is currently one numbered sunspot region
on the solar disk visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low to Low on 5-7 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 4 May,
the solar wind speed gradually increased, starting around 420
km/s and reaching a maximum of 526 km/s at 04/1709 UT, currently
around 490 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached a peak of 11 nT at
04/0048 UT, currently varying between 2 to 3 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -6 nT at 04/0508
UT, then varied between +/-3 nT later in the UT day. The solar
wind is expected to continue at light to moderate levels on 5
May, then experience a moderate enhancement on 6 and 7 May due
to a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 8 12232321
Cocos Island 5 12221220
Darwin 7 12232221
Townsville 10 12242322
Learmonth 9 12233321
Culgoora 9 02242321
Gingin 10 11233421
Canberra 8 01242320
Launceston 10 02243321
Hobart 10 02243321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 17 01355320
Casey 14 25333221
Mawson 20 23443235
Davis 10 13432221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 64 (Active)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2221 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 May 12 Quiet to Active
07 May 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mainly Quiet to Unsettled
levels across the Australian region on UT day 4 May, with isolated
Active periods. Quiet to Active levels were observed in Antarctica,
with some Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 5 May,
then increase to Quiet to Active levels on 6 and 7 May due the
effects associated with a small recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 5-7 May,
with a chance of minor MUF depressions due to an increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
06 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
07 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. The Northern Australian
region experienced Minor MUF depressions during the local day.
Sporadic E layers were observed over most of the Australian region.
Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are
expected for the next three UT days, 5-7 May, in the Australian/NZ
regions, with a chance of minor MUF depressions due to an increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 94700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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