[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 7 09:30:20 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours with 
several B-class and C-class flares from region 2740(N07E40). 
The largest flare was a C9.9 flare at 06/0510 UT associated with 
a weak type II sweep and a narrow CME. There is currently another 
new numbered region, 2741(N03E74) on the solar visible disk. 
Region 2740 has increased in area and magnetic complexity (Beta-Delta 
magnetic class), it is expected to produce more C-class flares 
with the possibility of M-class flares over the next three days, 
7-9 May. A series of CMEs observed after 06/0548 UT in coronagraphy 
imagery will be analysed for any Earth directed components. On 
UT day 6 May, the solar wind speed gradually decreased, currently 
around 340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) mainly varied between 3-5 
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between 
+/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to become moderately enhanced 
on 7-8 May due to a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole, 
then start to weaken on 9 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   10012221
      Cocos Island         2   11011110
      Darwin               3   11012111
      Townsville           3   10012211
      Learmonth            4   11012221
      Culgoora             3   10012221
      Gingin               4   11012221
      Canberra             3   00022210
      Launceston           4   10022221
      Hobart               3   00012221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   00022110
      Casey                7   23212221
      Mawson              13   31113235
      Davis                8   13212232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2100 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
08 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 May     7    Mostly Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 6 May. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels, with isolated Active 
periods, on 7-8 May due the effects associated with a small recurrent 
coronal hole, returning to Mostly Quiet on 8 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 May    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May   -10    Near predicted monthly values
08 May   -10    Near predicted monthly values
09 May   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 6 
May and is current for 6-8 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
ranged mostly from near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
levels during the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Sporadic 
E layers were observed over most of the Australian region. Mostly 
normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected 
for the next three UT days, 7-9 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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